Description
*Strategy signals are emailed daily, prices are USD charged monthly.
Strategy Overview: Adaptive Volatility-Timed SPY
This strategy is a precision-engineered quantitative model designed to optimize entry and exit points for the SPY (S&P 500 ETF). Rather than adhering to a “buy and hold” philosophy, the strategy utilizes a high-conviction Volatility Regime Filter to deploy capital only when the risk-reward profile is skewed heavily in the investor’s favor.
Core Methodology
The strategy operates on the principle that market returns are not distributed evenly across all volatility regimes. It treats volatility not as a risk to be feared, but as a signal to be decoded.
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The Regime Filter: The model continuously scans the VIX Term Structure, realized volatility clusters, and the “volatility-of-volatility” (VVIX). It categorizes the market into specific “Safe,” “Opportunistic,” or “Hazardous” regimes.
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The Timely Buy: Positions are initiated during “volatility expansion” events that signal price exhaustion or during “volatility compression” periods that precede high-probability breakouts.
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The Exit Logic: By identifying when volatility regimes are shifting from stable to unstable, the strategy exits positions before the majority of drawdown events occur.
Strategic Advantages
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Capital Efficiency: By remaining on the sidelines or in cash during high-risk/low-probability regimes, the strategy achieves a High Rate of Return (ROR) on an annualized basis while keeping capital “ready” for the best setups.
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Drawdown Suppression: The primary edge is the avoidance of “market noise.” By filtering out periods of erratic volatility, the strategy maintains a significantly lower drawdown profile compared to a standard S&P 500 benchmark.
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Simplified Execution: By focusing exclusively on the SPY, the strategy benefits from deep liquidity, tight spreads, and zero style-drift.
Execution Framework
| Phase | Action | Volatility Signal |
| Accumulation | Systematic Buy | Volatility Mean Reversion (The “Fear” Peak) |
| Trend Capture | Hold / Scale | Low & Stable Volatility (The “Grind” Higher) |
| Defensive Shift | Exit to Cash / Hedge | Rapid Volatility Expansion (The “Warning” Sign) |
Strategy Note: This is an “institutional-grade” timing model. It is designed for the disciplined investor who prioritizes the preservation of capital during turbulence while demanding outsized participation during market rallies.
Key metrics
SPY Vol Algo
ROR: 108.47%
MaxDD: -21.27%
PctWins: 89.76%
2023- 2026 (new volatility regime filter)

2018 – 2022

Performance charts
Equity

Drawdown

Sample Trades






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